Learning Objectives

At the end of the module, the student will: Understand basic probability concepts. Know how to set up and interpret a cross-classification or contingency table. Using Microsoft Excel, know how to: Compute conditional and unconditional probabilities. Generate and interpret a confidence interval for a proportion. Develop and interpret an hypothesis test for a proportion. Generate and interpret a confidence interval for the difference between two proportions. Generate and interpret Z and Chi-Square tests for the difference between two proportions from a contingency table. Generate and interpret Chi-Square tests for the difference between multiple proportions from a contingency table.

Module Notes

The following sub modules contain summary notes for the three content topic areas of Module 5. Module 5.1: Simple, Joint, Marginal and Conditional Probabilities Module 5.2: Confidence Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for a Proportion Module 5.3: Multiple Sample Tests with Categorical Data

Assignment

This is an optional assignment. Use the three tables of data from an airline satisfaction survey at the bottom of this page to answer the assignment questions. The survey was given to passengers after they took a trip on this particular airline (adopted from Levine, 2000). The first table cross classifies passengers (survey participants) by their gender and whether or not they stated that this particular airline is the airline of their first choice when flying. For example, 512 male passengers indicated that this airline is the airline of their first choice. The second table cross classifies airline of choice by primary reason for their last airline trip; and the third table cross classifies primary reason for travel by baggage disposition.  Please note: this exercise requires that you do the Excel analysis. This is good practice and helps prepare you to use this technique in the future. However, for the final exam, I will provide the Excel data analysis input/output so the exam concentrates on your interpretations and conclusions from the Excel input/output. If you wish to omit the Excel analysis, please refer to my Excel printouts that I will forward via e-mail when we get to this module. Using Microsoft Excel for the analysis, 1. Reference the Gender Table. Is there significant evidence that the proportion of passengers who state that this airline is their airline of choice differs from 50%? Note: templates are provided for analysis of the contingency tables in Module 5.3 Notes. 2. Reference the Gender Table. Is there significant evidence of a difference between males and females in terms of the proportion of passengers who claim this airline is the airline of choice? 3. Reference the Airline Choice/Primary Reason Table. Is there evidence of a significant difference among the various primary reasons for flying with respect to the proportion of the passengers who claim this airline is their airline of choice? 4. Reference the Primary Reason/Baggage Disposition Table. Is there evidence of a significant relationship between primary reasons for flying and baggage disposition? 5. Reference the Primary Reason/Baggage Disposition Table. What is the: Probability that the primary reason for travel is "Pleasure" Probability that the baggage disposition is "Check All" Probability that the baggage disposition is "Check All" given the primary reason for travel is "Pleasure" Probability that the primary reason for travel is "Pleasure" given the baggage disposition is "Check All". 6. Be able to demonstrate your knowledge of the learning objectives, as applied to this Assignment, in Exam 4. 7. (Optional). Send Microsoft Excel file, with Items 1 - 4, as an attachment to an e-mail to the instructor if you wish the instructor to review/give feedback on your work. This should be done not later than December 1, 2001.

Optional Text Reading

Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., & Williams, T. (2001). Contemporary Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel. Cincinnati, OH: South-Western. Chapter 4 Chapter 5 (Just skim) Chapter 7 (Section 7.6) Chapter 8 (Section 8.4) Chapter 11

Gender Table

Is this your airline of choice?	Male	Female
Yes	512	320
No	448	320

Airline Choice/Primary Reason Table

Is this your airline of choice? / Reason for flying	Business	Emergency	Moving	Pleasure
Yes	455	20	42	315
No	425	44	54	245

Primary Reason/Baggage Disposition Table

Reason for Travel / Baggage Disposition	Carry All	Check All	Both	No Bags
Business	653	83	103	41
Emergency	47	14	1	2
Moving	6	78	9	3
Pleasure	62	417	79	2

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