Learning Objectives

At the end of the module, the student will: Be aware of basic types of quantitative and qualitative forecasting models Be aware of classification of forecasting methods by time span and purpose Know how to conduct a Delphi Forecast Understand the components of a time series Know how to compute and use naïve, moving average and exponential smoothing methods in time series forecasting Know how to apply trend projection in time series forecasting Know how to compute and use seasonal projections in time series forecasting Understand the importance of measuring the reliability of time series forecasts Be able to use a computer program for time series forecasting applications

Readings

Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., and Williams, T. (1998). "Quantitative Methods for Business" (7th ed.). Cincinnati, OH: South-Western College Publishing. Chap 6 Forecasting Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., and Williams, T. (2000). "The Management Scientist for Windows 95, Windows 98, and Windows NT "(Version 5.0). Cincinnati, OH: South-Western College Publishing. Chap 12 Forecasting

Notes

The following topics are included in summary notes for Module Two. Module 2.1 Notes: Introduction to Forecasting Module 2.2 Notes: Smoothing Methods Module 2.3 Notes: Trend Projections Module 2.4 Notes: Trend and Seasonal Components

Assignment

The case assignment for Module 2 is Parts 1 - 4, Forecasting Lost Sales, in the text. Before you prepare your answers, please think about an appropriate forecasting model for the historical data patterns of this case. You may want to try a several different models and use your knowledge about measuring forecast reliability to choose among them. Provide brief answers to Parts 1 - 4 in a Word file. Insert "The Management Scientist" forecasting program OUT files in appropriate parts of the Word file. Please attach the word file to an e-mail to the instructor not later than Feb 10, 2001. Alternatively, you may answer the Parts 1 - 4 directly in an e-mail text. Insert "The Management Scientist" forecasting program OUT files in the appropriate parts of the e-mail text and forward to the instructor not later than Feb 10, 2001. As a final alternative, you may fax your Word document and computer printouts to the instructor at (941) 590-7330 not later than Feb 10, 2001.

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